Analyzing whether Greg Smith makes sense as the next Gilas naturalized player

With Andray Blatche not getting younger and our FIBA continental zone adding Australia and New Zealand to the mix, the need for a new naturalized player for Gilas has began.

Current PBA import Alex Stepheson has been thrown into the mix as someone who coul serve as a candidate, while dream candidates such as Javale McGee, Robin Lopez and even San Antonio Spurs center Dewayne Dedmon have also been mentioned. Of course, Jordan Clarkson will forever be in discussions.

Sadly, those players are just pipedreams at this point. They're either bad fits, or they're just unattainable because of the insane asking price that they present. If there's a realistic option that we have in finding a decent naturalized player, we may have that in current Blackwater Elite import Greg Smith.

(Photo Credit: SPIN.ph)

Chatter regarding having Smith as a naturalized player began when he was found practicing with the Gilas Pilipinas team in the Meralco Gym last April 20. When asked by a group of reporters regarding the prospect of being naturalized, he answered, "It's an opportunity for me to perform with these guys, the best players in the country. Why not?"

This then opened up a debate. Is Greg Smith fit to play for Gilas? Can he play alongside Junemar Fajardo, arguably the centerpiece of the National Team? Is he a fit for the dribble drive offense?

Let's break it down one by one.

Stats

First, let's take a look at the stats that he has. Pretty impressive right? It's safe to say that Greg has been dominating the PBA. Putting up pretty much 28 points, 22 rebounds, 4 assists along with a steal and a block per game are pretty good numbers. He's also scoring 52 percent of his field goal attempts, an impressive number no matter how we talk about it. Considering that he's playing in a Blackwater team that isn't exactly full of options, putting up that kind of efficiency is a feat in itself.

If we can nitpick, his 4 turnovers per game are really alarming. It's a 1 to 1 ratio with regards to his assists and turnovers. Although we could probably give a pass since in the first place, there's no one else in Blackwater who can really create for the team. At the same time, his poor free throw shooting isn't that encouraging. Making 6 free throws per game is nice, but when you take that into context with his 11 free throw attempts, it feels downright frustrating.

But it's important to ask ourselves, HOW is Greg getting these baskets? As we can see from the shot chart above, he gets most of his baskets from around the rim. Not just inside the paint, mind you. But AROUND the rim. In fact, he scores from there so much that 58 PERCENT of his field goal attempts have come from that area.

When it comes to scoring from outside, there's little reason to be hopeful. He's only attempted six three-pointers, and among the six shots he's tried, Smith has only managed to make one. From mid-range, he's attempted a grand total of 11 shots, only making 27 percent of his tries. That isn't a good look by any means.

Clearly, based on the stats and the shot chart, Smith thrives down low. He's a bruiser through and through. In today's game, that could be viewed as a negative, but in reality, that isn't entirely the case. Greg's individual Net Rating is a positive versus the negative Net Rating which the entire Blackwater team has. For what it's worth, that's a pretty promising thing to have.

Let's go ahead and study some tape.

Offense

So, numbers don't lie. Greg does score most of his buckets from down low. But how does it play out on the court itself? 

First, let's check out this simple action Greg Smith was involved in during his brief time with the Houston Rockets last 2012. The play starts out with James Harden isolated at the top of the key, then he makes a quick drive to the basket. The defense collapses, and Smith power dribbles his way for the easy basket.

It's that kind of action which pretty much makes the dribble drive offense what it is. It involves players driving to the rim, then using that penetration to create open looks for the pass to the perimeter, or even a simple drop pass like the one shown above. It's not hard to imagine for Smith to be the recipient off a Jayson Castro/Terrence Romeo/Kiefer Ravena drive in the near future. 

Now, let's look at how operates with the ball in his hands. Given that he's practically projected to play as an import, it's fair to expect him to create for himself. Smith is isolated here near the post. He uses a quick dribble towards the rim, and he uses his strong upper body to finish strong. 

This is a good sign that somehow, Smith can create for himself. His body is strong enough for him to take hits from multiple defenders, and he's able to attack quick enough so that the defense isn't able to strip the ball from him. Just don't expect him to do any crazy isolation wizardry like an Andray Blatche. That just isn't his game.

Finally, let's check out how Smith operates in the post as a passer. As a naturalized player, you're bound to receive a ton of attention from opposing defenses, which means a bunch of double teams, help all over and much more. 

That's what exactly happened in the clip above. Greg is isolated at the left block. Two dribbles in, the player defending #9 decides to go for a rather weak double leaving his man open. The double isn't strong enough, as Smith just has the right amount of space to kick it out for the easy trey. 

For the longest time now, the former Houston Rocket has been described as a guy who rarely makes bone-headed decisions. This play is the perfect example of that. He could have easily spun to the left with a nice looking post move. Instead, he passes the ball out for a better look, which leads to an extra point. It's pretty boring, but it's downright efficient and effective.

Can he fit with Junemar Fajardo?

(Photo Credit: FIBA)

Ultimately, this is where Smith's naturalization chances may depend on. After all, Gilas head coach Chot Reyes eyes a naturalization candidate who can co-exist with the three-time PBA MVP. Andray Blatche looked like a good fit beside Junemar, but Dray hogged the ball a bit too much that Junemar wasn't able to get much looks, Plus defensively, both Dray and Junemar would get killed against more athletic competition.

With Smith defensively, it's a rather troubling fit. He's only averaging 1 steal and 1 block per game against the PBA competition. But it's not those stats which makes the fit with Junemar troubling. It's the fact that Greg is used to primarily defending down low. If you look at the clip above, Smith is positioned where you would expect Junemar to be placed on defense. And it may be a short clip, but it's rather clear that Smith doesn't have the quickest feet out there.

That's what makes it difficult. It makes Gilas prone to penetration from quicker forwards, or long bombs from teams that whip the ball around extremely well. Remember when Gilas lost to New Zealand in the FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournament? It was because New Zealand was a team that had one, quick forwards, and two, an offensive system which shared the ball really well. Isaac Fotu killed Gilas in that game because Junemar and Dray were too slow to defend him from outside.

If there's something to give us hope with Junemar and Greg's defensive prospects, it's the fact that Smith is a far longer athlete compared to Blatche. He has big hands and his wingspan is insane. So at the very least, he has that length to help him in recovering from a forward's penetration.

Offensively, we can look at the clip above to give us a slight preview of what could be between Junemar and Greg (no, not THAT Greg). Imagine Junemar as the player receiving the entry pass from the post. Look at how the defense is constantly keeping their attention on the post player, losing Smith who just calmly walks from the top of the key to the rim for a "roll" to the basket.

It's not hard to imagine Junemar isolated in the post. He does it all the time in the PBA. The difference is, in FIBA, he might not receive as many double teams, and he won't be holding the ball that much compared to the competition here. But, there's that sliver of hope that when Junemar does get doubled, Smith is going to be ready to receive the ball off a pass from The Kraken. JMF is used to passing it to players in the post, while Smith is used to playing off the ball down low. Sounds good enough.

In terms of spacing, this is where it gets a bit blurry. Junemar's range hasn't extended to the three-point line just yet, while Smith just can't score much in the perimeter. Dribble-drive requires space for it to work well, and with two behemoths in Smith and Junemar down low, that doesn't bode too well for Gilas.

Overall

I think Smith makes sense as a possible naturalization candidate for Gilas....

... if only Chot Reyes is willing to play Junemar Fajardo off the bench. Reyes mentioned it himself: the naturalized player has to mix well with Junemar. That means we're working under the assumption that whoever Gilas plans on getting will start beside the PBA MVP. It's a fit.. somehow. But it's not a fit that's going to put Gilas over the top in the Asian level.

What Gilas needs from a naturalization candidate is someone who will be able to hide the two weaknesses of Junemar in international play: Defense and range for the sake of space. A forward who can shoot from three, but at the same time, has the versatility to defend from as far as the three-point line. Problem is, Kevin Durant is American, and Kai Sotto has a long way to go before transforming himself into a forward who can provide those two things.

That's not to say that Greg Smith isn't a good player. There's a difference between a player not being good and a player not being a good fit. Smith is a good basketball player, but he just doesn't fit beside Junemar Fajardo. He fits dribble drive, but not Junemar.

Smith could be good as a naturalization candidate, but that means not using the best player in the country. I don't think it would be smart to do that.

All stats and shot charts courtesy of HumbleBola Stats.