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Thoughts on the FIBA Asia Championship Draw 2013

  Finally, after a week of not posting, I have decided to post once again. This topic is actually around 4 days late, but it is still hotly being discussed by Filipino basketball fans all over the globe.

  The FIBA Asia Championships Draw 2013.

The draw was held at the Manila Hotel
last Thursday afternoon.
  Now, before I tell you guys what the classifications are, I will explain first how the draw went about.



  This year's draw was a "pure" draw, meaning that the some of the 15 teams that will be involved in the draw (The Philippines has the privilege of choosing which group it should go to) will not go through some pre classification, thus kind of ensuring the parity that each group will have.

  There will be 4 groups for the tournament and they are as follows..

 Group A - Philippines, Jordan, Chinese Taipei, Saudi Arabia
 Group B - Japan, Lebanon, Qatar, Hong Kong
 Group C - China, Iran, Korea, SEA 2*
 Group D - Kazakhstan, SEA 1*, India, Bahrain

  *SEA 1 and 2 are the slots for the 2 South East Asian Teams. The countries that will occupy the slots are
    TBD.

  The Philippines would wound up choosing Group A, and they chose Saudi Arabia as their first match for the tournament. Joining the two teams are the new look Jordan squad and Chinese Taipei, aka, Taiwan (uhh.. awkward.)

  In Group B, the "connecting" group of Gilas, has a solid Japan squad, a deadly Qatar team, a seemingly confused Lebanon and EABA 4th placers Hong Kong.

  For Group C, well, let's just say that this is the Group Of Death. You have practically the top 3 teams in Asia, with the Big Red Machine that is China, the versatile group that is Iran, and the sniping squad of Korea. Joining this group will be one of our neighbors from Southeast Asia, which is TBD.

Yi Jianlian and Hamed Haddadi will engage
in a gargantuan match up come August.
  Group D is arguably the weakest group. It has a still deadly Kazakhstan team, India, Bahrain and the TBD second team from South East Asia.

  Basketball pundits have actually been divided concerning the Philippines' choice to go to Group A. Truth is, I am as well, and I have no specific stand concerning the issue. Yes, I am one of those people who simply go, "no matter what we will support Gilas". And, I hold true to that. But, might as well analyze the whole situation.

  Gilas is grouped with one team that they can easily beat in Saudi Arabia, while they are also grouped with one team which they actually have quite a grudge for due to national reasons in Chinese Taipei, and another which has haunted them ever since 2007 in Jordan.

  All teams can be beaten. Saudi is pretty much a sure win, while Chinese Taipei will provide a tough challenge, but we can still put them away. Jordan, well, is another story. They aren't getting Rashiem Wright back as their naturalized import, but they are replacing him with former NBA player Andre Emmett, a solid 6'5 wing player. They still have long time national team member Zaid Abbas, who has been quite a headache for us Filipinos for quite some time now. Anytime Jordan gets hot, it will be trouble for the Filipinos, so hopefully they can address this problem by employing effective defensive strategies on them.

 For the second stage of the tournament, they will have to join Group B to form a new group in Group E (the other two groups will do the same to form Group F). This sets them up with three teams who are sure to give them problems; Qatar, Japan and Lebanon. This is where the debate starts to flare.

  Qatar is the strongest among those three, as they have been producing solid results throughout the FIBA Asia tournaments. They are also sporting a new import in Jarvis Hayes, who averaged a solid 8.3 points for his 8 year NBA career, and is supposedly a three point shooting machine for the Qataris. They will surely provide the toughest challenge for the Filipinos.

  Japan has always been a headache for the Gilas team. Sure we have beat them a number of times in the recent months, but they are still quite a scary bunch, especially if they get hot from rainbow country. Oh, and they have those Takeuchi brothers, who are sure to challenge Junemar and Marcus in the paint area.

  Lebanon well... Fadi El Khatib. And they are a very much solid group of guys. And Fadi El Khatib. He's just crazy good.

Asia better watch out for this man. The Lebanese Legend.
  So, was it really a bad decision for Gilas to go to Group A? Let's analyze it by looking at the flip side of things, by looking how Gilas could fare if it went to Group D.

  In Group D, I can confidently say that they could sweep the competition there. Things get real interesting when they reach the second stage and join Group C to form Group F.

  Let's assume that we'll face China, Iran and South Korea for Group F. We can beat all three teams, but the most possible ones are Iran and South Korea. China is simply on another level at this point. We have always inched close to beating the Koreans, but we also seem to falter in the clutch, and I hope the case will be different this year (concerning the clutch struggles). For Iran, well, we have beaten them once two years ago, but they aren't exactly the easiest of teams to beat. And for sure, they are determined to bounce back from their poor 2011 showing. Oh, and they have a 7 foot 2 monster of a man in Hamed Haddadi.

  So, assuming that Gilas would beat South Korea and lose to China and Iran, that puts them with a 4 - 2 record for Group F. Let's say China goes 6- 0, Iran goes 5 - 1 and South Korea 3 - 3. That would put Gilas in 3rd place, meaning they will face off with the 2nd placer of Group E. Let's say, the top four for Group E are (in order), Qatar, Jordan, Japan and Lebanon. That would mean a showdown with Jordan during the quarter finals. If they win against Jordan, they enter the semis.... most probably against China though. That would be interesting, for sure.

  Now, let's look at reality and analyze the scheme of things for Gilas.

  So the top three for Group F will more or less be China, Iran and South Korea. That is almost sure (unless Kazakhstan shocks us all in Group F). In order for Gilas to avoid any of those three, they will HAVE to win ALL their games in Groups A and E so they can lock the 1st place spot. Qatar and Jordan will be prove to be tough opponents in order to do that.

 If they don't well.. they could end up arranging themselves a duel against South Korea or worse against Iran during the quarterfinals.

  In theory, Group D seems like the better pick (at least based on my assumptions). But, I really think that the coaching staff of Gilas has something up it's sleeve to actually sweep the competition in Group E. Or if they're that confident, beat South Korea or Iran if they are pitted against either team come the quarterfinals.

  Whatever happens, we, the Filipinos, should support Gilas. Enough with the finger pointing and blaming. Our support can go a long way for Gilas. A really long way.

Para sa bayan.

#GoGilas #LabanPilipinas

Photo courtesy of Chot Reyes
Para sa bayan. 

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