PBA Commissioner's Cup Finals 2013: Alaska - Ginebra Series Preview and Predictions

     Finally... it is set.

    After a combined 9 games for the semifinals, the stage is set. Two teams, one championship.

   We didn't get the Manila Clasico Finals match up most of us were craving for. A battle between the top two coaches in the league today isn't going to happen either. Of course, the rematch of the Finals last year isn't happening either.

   It's the Alaska Aces vs. the Barangay Ginebra San Miguel for the Finals.

 

LA Tenorio is back in the finals..
this time against his former squad, the Alaska Aces.

    Now, for the preview of this match up, we'll analyze both teams first. We'll talk about the key injuries for both teams, how they got here, their key player for the series, and what they have to do in order to win it all.

Alaska Aces: 11 - 3, #1 seed in the playoffs

Key injuries - Robert Dozier (sprained ankle, although will most likely play in the series)

How they got here - The Alaska Aces beat the San Mig Coffee Mixers in their best of five series. They would end up winning that series 3 games to 1, losing the first game by only two points. Despite most of the calls not going the way of Alaska the whole series, and Rob Dozier struggling in the final game, they would still end up beating the Mixers. The Aces showed composure and resiliency under pressure, having to rally past big leads in the final two games of the series. 

Key player for the series - In my opinion, the key player for the Aces in this series will be the Cebuano Hotshot, Dondon Hontiveros. In the back court of Alaska, Cyrus Baguio and JV Casio will get the most attention since they are the most consistent guards for Coach Luigi Trillo. Although there are times that Dondon does play the 3, I honestly still consider him a guard. He will have to hit his threes consistently to give the Aces an extra weapon for offense, and to give Ginebra another thing to worry about on defense.

How they will win it all - .. by turning their TEAM defense up a notch once more. That is what brought Alaska to this stage. It wasn't Calvin Abueva, Rob Dozier or JV Casio who brought Alaska to this stage. It was their TEAM defense. Alaska will have to play good, physical defense as a team. Not just one player can play defense, but the whole team will have to put effort into defending the Gins.

Barangay Ginebra San Miguel: 7 - 7, #7 seed in the playoffs

Key injuries - Mark Caguioa (MCL injury, will most likely play)

                        LA Tenorio (Elbow injury, will most likely play)

How they got here - The Barangay Ginebra San Miguel beat the Talk 'N Text Tropang Texters in their best of five series. It took the Barangay five games to dispatch of the reigning Philippine Cup champions. Despite having a depleted line up and not having the services of Billy Mamaril, Mark Caguioa and Rudy Hatfield for most of the series, the Barangay relied on their sixth man and mustered enough to beat the Tropang Texters. Jayjay Helterbrand and Kerby Raymundo have been playing like it's 2005, contributing extremely well for Ginebra. 

Key player for the series - Kerby Raymundo. No other big will be as key as Kerby. Here's the thing, among all the players in Ginebra, he probably has the most consistent mid range jumper. He usually plays as a stretch 4, so he will be key for Ginebra's offense. Not only will he give Ginebra and extra weapon in offense, but he will also stretch the floor and give Vernon Macklin more space to operate in the inside. That will force Robert Dozier to go out of the pain and defend him since Sonny Thoss will most likely defend Vernon. 

How they will win it all - ... by turning the game into a shootout, and, they will have to make their shots. In their three wins against the Tropang Texters, they scored more than 100 points (104 twice, and 111 in the last game). Also, in those three games, they used their high octane offense to score points. This is Ginebra's game, a fast paced, fastbreaking game. If they play in the half court, they will have difficulty scoring because of Alaska's vaunted defense. 

Key storylines to watch out for: 

Calvin Abueva vs. The Barangay - This is a match up that will be incredibly key, believe it or not. Here's the thing, Ginebra gets their energy off the crowd. The crowd is indeed their sixth man. And... Calvin gets his energy off the crowd as well. And the worst part.. he gets his energy off a crowd who's AGAINST HIM. He wants a crowd which he can piss the hell out off. So, quits lang ba? Not exactly. There are times Calvin becomes erratic, and this erratic of his doesn't benefit the team. Most of the time though, the angas of the Beast energizes the team, and it helps the Aces get the victory. So it will all depend on how Calvin will handle all the pressure from the crowd. He got to handle a rabid San Mig Coffee Planet. Can he now handle an even more crazy Barangay Ginebra crowd? 

The LA Tenorio "return" - We can't really say that this is a real "return" since, in the PBA, there are no home arenas and such. But, whatever. Finally, a match up between LA Tenorio and his old team, Alaska for the championship. This was the team LA Tenorio grew in. This is where The Lieutenant was born. This was where he established his reputation as a clutch performer. And now, they are foes. Not only foes, but foes for a championship. More or less, the Alaska coaching staff must know LA's style of play. The thing is though, LA knows the triangle very well, since he was after all, the one orchestrating it in his stay with Alaska. It will be interesting to see how both sides counter each other's moves.

Mark Caguioa's return - I know, I know, Mark Caguioa has already technically returned for the Barangay. But thing is, the contribution that he gave wasn't really that significant. Sure the two free throws he shot were key as well to burying TnT even more, but it wasn't as key as the contributions of Mac Baracael and LA Tenorio. So, now, the question is, how is Caguioa's MCL? Is it already fully healed? Can he go back from where he started?

Robert Dozier's sprained ankle - If you guys didn't know, Robert Dozier practically played Game 4 of their best of five series with SMC on one foot. He was nursing a sprained ankle in that game, which kind of explained his lackluster 6 point spread. So, how sprained is Robert's ankle? Will it affect his quality of play come the big stage?

Key Match ups for the series

LA Tenorio vs. JV Casio - The battle of the court generals. These two point guards are probably the two most important pieces in the LA Tenorio trade that occurred a few months back. Alaska lost a point guard, an elite one at that, so obviously someone had to replace LA. Come JV Casio. JV has done a good job orchestrating the Alaska triangle, and he has had his fair share of clutch shots as well. LA hasn't had the same numbers as he did with Alaska, but he has been an awesome all around point guard for Coach Al Francis Chua. The way both players defend each other will be key, because they will be the ones to dictate the flow of their offense.

Robert Dozier vs. Vernon Macklin - The two leading (obviously) candidates for the Bobby Parks Best Import Award. Now, if there is one thing similar for both players, they both like dunking. Oh, and they like playing the pick and roll too. The first difference between the two is, Robert is a better free throw shooter than Vernon Macklin. This will be important since both of them will be the focal point in the offenses of both teams. Vernon, on the other hand, is a more powerful player compared to Dozier. Vernon has a huge upper body, while Robert is a lanky and athletic import. Both players are intimidating presences in the defensive end, but the import of the Aces is a far more efficient blocker compared to Vernon. Whatever happens though, the performances of both imports will be very key since both of them man the front court of their respective teams.

Calvin Abueva vs. Mac Baracael - There was a time when Mac Baracael was one of the top options of Coach Luigi to man the forward spots... but then, The Beast came. Then, Baracael would end up getting traded to the Barangay Ginebra San Miguel. Mac must feel bad about that trade. He must have felt like he really deserved more playing time for the Aces last conference. Now, he faces the man who took his playing time. He also faces the man who took the hearts of millions of San Mig Coffee fans. And now, Mac will be in charge of stopping him from taking the hearts of the millions of members of the Barangay. Expect an extremely physical match up between these two. 

Once upon a time, Mac and Calvin were team mates.
Now they'll have to chase for that ball as foes. 

Prediction: I like both teams, but I see Alaska getting the championship in 4 games, BUT, they will have to win the first two games in order to do so. Here's the thing, Ginebra is currently 4 - 0 in twice to beat disadvantage situations. So, if the series ends up 2 - 0, Ginebra will be facing a THRICE to beat disadvantage. So what's my logic in thinking Alaska will win if the series goes 2 - 1? Well, Alaska will have the luxury of adjustment. There won't be AS MUCH pressure on them, meaning they will adjust better to Ginebra's game plan. Alaska's front court depth will prove to be too much for Ginebra to handle. A sweep is possible, but I'll play it safe and say Alaska in 4. Who knows, I might be wrong. 

My prediction for Finals MVP will either by JV Casio or Calvin Abueva. They are two of the most important pieces in Alaska, so I expect big performances from both players. 

Game 1 of the best of five series of the Alaska Aces and the Barangay Ginebra San Miguel will be on Wednesday, May 15, 7:30 PM LIVE on TV5.